Danger to growth of leaving EU

IHS' CHIEF ECONOMIST SAYS BREXIT COULD HALVE UK GROWTH: In a report out on Wednesday, the research consultancy says there is a 35-40 percent chance Britain will part ways with the EU on June 23, reports Politico Morning Exchange. Perhaps more interestingly, Howard Archer, IHS Economics' senior director, said that on a back of the envelope calculation (he is already finalizing his estimates), a Brexit could prompt him to halve its economic growth forecast for 2017 from the current 2.5 percent. That's why the BoE is so worried: dub129.mail.live.com

"Towards a Reform of the Common European Asylum System" is the title of a document Commissioners will debate today, seen by POLITICO. Team Juncker is moving "toward a reform" after more than a year of anguished debate. Poltico says that contrary to the document title, the proposal is far-reaching and firm. The Commission wants to move on from the "Dublin" system of asylum seekers applying for protection in the first country they enter on EU soil, and replace it with a controversial permanent relocation scheme. It wants an "orderly," "safe" and "fair," system, which means lowering the current burden on the few EU countries that host most refugees: politi.co/1MQWsvn

The Frontex Annual Risk Analysis for 2016, released on Tuesday, says: "The EU external borders are confronted with three major challenges: an unprec¬edented rise in migratory pressure, an increasing terrorist threat and a steady rise in the number of regular travelers." Politico reports: politi.co/1S9sI9a

According to EUobserver, Frontex, the EU border control agency, has called for more access to security data after warning that terrorists could use the migratory route to infiltrate Europe: euobserver.com/justice/132941

Cities are at the forefront of the migration crisis, yet have little access to direct EU funding and need to have a bigger say in national policies, a roundtable discussion in the European Commission with mayors revealed on Tuesday (5 April.), EUobserver reports: euobserver.com/migration/132930

European Commission Vice-President Jyrki Katainen is "furious," tax evaders are a "cancer," and everything he's seen about the Panama Papers is "totally unacceptable," reports Politico. Katainen is also full of praise for the whistleblowers. The Commission is currently using state aid rules to try to prevent European companies from avoiding tax and has put forward an Anti Tax Avoidance Package. VIDEO of Katainen's comments | Bloomberg

Britain should abolish its carbon floor price to help the hard-hit steel industry, the lawmaker shepherding a reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) through parliament said on Tuesday (5 April), EurActiv reports: www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/lead-eu-carbon-policymaker-calls-for-help-for-steel/

The Circular Economy Package of waste and recycling laws will be backed by tougher European Commission enforcement than seen under previous administrations, an official yesterday (5 April) told plastic industry delegates. EurActiv reports: www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/commission-vows-tough-enforcement-of-circular-economy-package/

DON'T FORGET IT'S DUTCH REFERENDUM DAY, advises Politico. The vote is an unpredictable non-binding national ballot on whether to tell the Dutch government to attempt to block an already-in-force "association agreement" between the EU and Ukraine. For many Dutch it's a second chance to snub the EU a decade after a Dutch "no" vote killed the draft EU constitution. Laura Kroet has more: politi.co/1SyWcho

The New York Times says if the Dutch say no on Wednesday to the two-year-old agreement between the European Union and Ukraine, the vote could cause major headaches for Brussels, the Dutch government and even the British one: www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/world/europe/dutch-referendum-could-cause-trouble-for-europe.html

According to EurActiv the Dutch national referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association agreement is turning into a test of anti-EU sentiment before June's Brexit vote: www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/dutch-referendum-on-ukraine-treaty-will-test-anti-eu-sentiment/

EUobserver says the Dutch are voting in a referendum on an EU-Ukraine association agreement, which is also a vote on the country's attitude towards Europe and has potentially embarrassing geopolitical consequences: euobserver.com/political/132942